Results tagged ‘ Mike Napoli ’
I’ll start this out by saying what I’ve said in these pages many a time before: I’m NOT a major proponent of WAR. I understand the concept of it, I just don’t totally agree with it because of the subjectivity of the defensive metrics. I don’t “speak” sabermetrics, but a great sabermetric argument for the way I feel was published today, as a free article, on Baseball Prospectus.
A way I can use WAR, though, would be as a comparison tool that doesn’t involve delving into a lot of different stats. I thought it would be interesting to see, at the 1/4 point of the season, how the Texas Rangers might look, record-wise, had they decided to keep everyone from last year’s Rangers team, instead of adding the pieces they added. To do that, I examined the respective WAR of the departed Rangers to their counterparts from this year’s team.
For this study, I’m using essentially the Texas Rangers team that essentially comprised the Rangers following the July 31st trading deadline.
Here’s how the former Rangers are faring so far in 2013, based on bWAR (via Baseball Reference.com):
Mike Adams (Philadelphia) 0.4
Ryan Dempster (Boston) 0.5
Scott Feldman (Chicago Cubs) 0.8
Josh Hamilton (Los Angeles Angels) -0.6
Mark Lowe (Los Angeles Angels) -0.3
Mike Napoli (Boston) 1.0
Koji Uehara (Boston) 0.5
Michael Young (Philadelphia) 0.3
Now let’s look at this year’s Texas Rangers counterparts:
Jeff Baker 0.7
Lance Berkman 0.6
Jason Frasor 0.0
Leury Garcia 0.1
Derek Lowe 0.0
Leonys Martin 0.7
Joe Ortiz 0.0
A.J. Pierzynski 0.6
Nick Tepesch 0.0
The two biggest things that jump out at me: Leonys Martin‘s defense (the subjective part) has led to a much higher WAR figure than I thought, while, of the former Rangers, Ryan Dempster and Scott Feldman have both far exceeded what I most Rangers fans would have expected of them. Overall, the former Rangers out-WAR the current Rangers, but only by .2. If you’d like to extrapolate that to an actual record, WAR suggests the Rangers would be just where they are, at 24-14 or maybe one game better at 25-13, had they just stood pat with last year’s team. Of course, they’d have that record for a significantly higher payroll than they currently have, which would be a discussion for another day.
Here’s a wrap-up of the week that was in Texas Rangers baseball. All stats listed are just for the previous week of play.
Rangers Record: 4-3
Overall: 16-9 (1st Place AL West) (+2.5)
Mitch Moreland .393/.393/.571 5 Doubles 3 RBI
Nelson Cruz .360/.467/.640 2 HR 9 RBI 5 Walks
David Murphy .185/.241/.222
Jalapeno Caliente (Pitching):
Yu Darvish 1-0 0.00 ERA 11 Strikeouts in 6 IP
Justin Grimm 1-0 7 Shutout Innings
Raspa Frio (Pitching):
Derek Holland 0-1, 6.39 ERA in 12.2 IP
Joe Ortiz 0-1 27.00 ERA 5 ER in 1.2 IP
Considering all the games were on the road, 4-3 is an acceptable record but Rangers fans were hoping for more after starting the week 4-1 and having Derek Holland and Alexi Ogando on the bump for the last two games of the week. Sadly, the Rangers offense went south in those two games and the Twins broke close 1-0 games open in the later innings. Still, the Rangers were easily the best of the West for the week, picking up two games in the standings on the Oakland A’s and starting week 5 with a 2.5 game lead. This assures Texas of first place when April comes to a close.
This week it’s home cooking for the Rangers as they play six games against the American League’s pair of Sox: Chicago Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday followed by Boston Friday through Sunday. The highlight will be Tuesday night when Yu Darvish takes the hill for Texas. If Darvish wins the game, he will join Rick Helling, Fergie Jenkins, Jim Bibby, Aaron Sele and Bobby Witt as the only Rangers pitchers to earn five wins by April 30th. The way Darvish has been pitching, the odds are in his favor to join that elite company.
The weekend series will be interesting as well with the return of Mike Napoli and Koji Uehara to Arlington. As bad as the initial reaction to Josh Hamilton was in his first at bat in front of the DFW crowd, expect an equal but opposite reaction to Napoli’s return. He never said anything disparaging about Rangers fans and professed love for his time with the Rangers so he’ll get a warm reception his first time to the plate. As good as Uehara was in 2012 for Texas, he probably won’t elicit much of a reaction one way or another. That’s the life of a relief pitcher.
Let’s see. Let Josh Hamilton go. Reluctantly let Mike Napoli go. Gladly let Michael Young go. And while we’re at it, let your best bullpen set-up guys, Mike Adams and Koji Uehara go. Then, once the season starts, have your Opening Day starter go on the DL after three ineffective starts, make sure your previously platooned left-handed hitting left fielder and first baseman get off to miserable offensive starts, especially against southpaws, and have two rookies fill up 40% of your rotation. Mix it all together and VOILA! you have a team tied for the AL’s best record as we near the end of the season’s first month.
The question is, how the heck are they doing it?
This year’s Texas Rangers are certainly not resembling what we’ve expected from Rangers teams in the past. No longer is the offense a home-run hitting machine. You would think the pitching staff is nothing to write home about. Not a lot of household names there. It certainly doesn’t get the press of the starting staffs of Oakland, Detroit or even Tampa Bay. Here the Rangers are, though, winners of five of their first seven series. The two series they didn’t win, they split. The longest losing streak Texas has had in the first 22 games? One. That’s right, they have yet to lose consecutive games in 2013.
The question gets asked again, how the heck are they doing it?
Pitching is certainly the biggest answer. Through 22 games, the Rangers are first in the American League in Earned Run Average and it isn’t even close. At 2.76, the Rangers’ ERA is almost a half run better than the 2nd place Chicago White Sox. Yu Darvish (as chronicled in yesterday’s post) is approaching Ace status as a starter, Derek Holland has been much more consistent in the early going and rookie Nick Tepesch, winner of last night’s 2-1 victory over the Twins, has been nothing short of phenomenal. Tepesch has walked three batters in four starts. All three walks came in ONE INNING of his first start. None in the 19+ innings since. The bullpen features a 5’7″ rookie in Joe Ortiz whose first year is resembling the successful debut a year earlier by his teammate Robbie Ross. Tanner Scheppers has gone through 10 games and 11.2 innings without giving up a run, earned or otherwise. Texas is the only bullpen in the AL not to have blown a save yet on the season.
The pitching is paving the way. The offense, despite some good pieces, hasn’t come close to gelling as yet. They spend the early part of games making the opposing starter look good. To date, Texas has only scored 5 runs in the first inning and have scored in the 1st in only 3 of their first 22 games. In the first three innings of games, essentially the first time through the line-up, Texas has scored only 18 of their 102 total runs scored. The second time through? A different story. 52 runs scored in innings 4, 5 and 6.
While the offense has been inconsistent, there are good signs of things to come. Texas is showing a more discerning eye so far in 2013. Last year, they struck out 17.7% of the time. So far in 2013, that’s down to 15%. Meanwhile the walk rate is up from a year ago, from 7.7% to 8.6%. Part of it is due to the arrival of Lance Berkman, but the approach preached by new hitting coach Dave Magadan plays a large part as well. Taking more pitches is one thing. It’s staying patient while still being able to swing with authority that will come in time.
Meanwhile, backing up the great pitching has been pretty stellar defense. Thus far, Texas has only 8 errors in the first 22 games. How much has the defense improved? Well, when your Gold Glove-winning third baseman is the player with the most errors on your team, that has to tell you something. Yep, Adrian Beltre has three E’s for the Rangers. Who doesn’t have errors? Shortstop Elvis Andrus, for one. Not a single E-6 on his ledger. On the entire 25-man roster, only four different Rangers have been charged with errors. Not one of them is a pitcher or a catcher. The catching tandem of newcomer A.J. Pierzynski and Geovany Soto hasn’t allowed a passed ball as yet. Rangers pitchers have only 5 wild pitches.
In the most telling defensive statistic of all, Rangers opponents have only stolen four bases in the first 22 games and been caught three times. A year ago, 80% of the steals against Texas were successful and opponents stole 108 bases in all. At the current rate (which of course won’t remain this low), that figure will be more like 30 by season’s end. I’m not going to say this is all Pierzynski, as he’s not known as one of the greats in cutting down would be thieves. Part of it is due to Rangers pitchers not allowing as many runners to reach base in the first place. Currently, Rangers pitching is giving up fully one less hit per 9 innings than they did a year ago. Fewer base runners fewer steal opportunities. Still, it is a dramatic improvement thus far over a year ago and one that bears remembering as the season progresses.
Pitching and defense winning games for the Texas Rangers. Whoever would’ve thought it possible?
- Nick Tepesch impressive in big league debut, leading Rangers to 6-1 victory over Rays (sportsblogs.star-telegram.com)
- Rookie Tepesch stymies Twins in Rangers’ 2-1 (sacbee.com)
I am sick to death of everything associated with performance enhancing drugs. I’m sick of hearing about PED’s, I’m sick of hearing about athletes who are using PED’s, I wish it would go away and never tarnish the sports pages of my favorite newspaper again.
I have always taken a more nuanced approach to the whole steroids and the Hall of Fame issue. I think Barry Bonds should be in the Hall of Fame, not only because he was putting up Hall of Fame caliber numbers before his association with BALCO and steroids, but also because at the time of his use, they were not out and out banned by Major League Baseball. They may have been illegal substances as far as the government is concerned, but not according to baseball.
You want to keep players out of the Hall who were caught using after bans were put into place by MLB, then be my guest. You get no argument from me.
So now there’s an article written in a Miami newspaper. A lengthy article. Seven pages on-line long. An article that apparently shows the BALCO days still aren’t behind us. BALCO has just been replaced by the “Anti-Aging Clinic”. In particular, one of these clinics seemed to have a lengthy list of clients, including Bartolo Colon and Melky Cabrera, who were both suspended in 2012; Alex Rodriguez, who admitted juicing when he played with the Rangers, but has insisted he has been clean as a whistle ever since; and Nelson Cruz of the Texas Rangers.
(Snarky comment) Nellie, if this is true, I’m afraid the PED’s you used last year didn’t enhance your performance at all. Your home runs, slugging percentage and OPS were down from 2011 and your strikeouts were way up. (End snarky comment)
This article appears to be well researched and the odds are pretty good based on what I read that the Rangers are now looking at the distinct possibility of going without Cruz for the first two months of the 2013 season. Considering how much power the Rangers lost in the line-up due to the departures of Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, this is going to make the Rangers offense look completely different than in years past.
Baseball players aren’t choirboys, we all know that. Thanks to the money that can be made by players, it’s no surprise that many are willing to cross a line in order to aid their personal bottom lines. It’s not good human nature, but it is very human and visible in all walks of life: from business people who gain in their careers even when it comes at the expense of the very customers they’re supposed to serve; stockbrokers who gain an edge from insider trading; educators who learn how to rig test results so it enhances the funding for their schools; police officers who manufacture evidence to pad their arrest stats. Every profession has cheats associated with it.
For me, this is the first time the cheating has affected my team in the present day. There have been plenty of Rangers tainted by the cloud of steroid use: among them Juan Gonzalez, Jose Canseco, A-Rod and Rafael Palmeiro. They all were “outed” AFTER the fact. This is today. The 2013 season. Nellie Cruz. Hypocrite I may be, but despite the nuance I have in the PED argument, it hurts that a player from MY team apparently has chosen to cross that line and affect his team’s chances due to his own selfishness.
Juan Gone, A-Rod, Canseco and Raffy using steroids didn’t affect the way I felt about them because they always struck me as the type of guys that would do something like that. Nellie has never struck me that way. I probably have more affection for Nelson Cruz than I had for any of those other four. He plays with joy. He was instrumental in starting the whole “Claw and Antlers” thing in 2010. Now I’ll never look at Nelson Cruz the same way. If he gets a suspension, which would not surprise me at all, what will my reaction be after he serves his suspension? Will I immediately forgive him and move on or will I have an instant suspicion as soon as he hits his first home run of the season? I honestly don’t know.
Mike Napoli? Signs with Red Sox.
Koji Uehara? Signs with Red Sox.
Zack Greinke? Signs with Dodgers.
Justin Upton? Stays with Arizona.
James Shields? Traded to Kansas City.
Josh Hamilton? Signs with the Angels.
Just a couple short weeks ago, the word from Nashville was that the Rangers were dominating the Winter Meetings. Two weeks later, virtually every player speculated about going to the Rangers has gone elsewhere.
And such is the cycle of baseball. Jon Daniels has been the Boy Wonder of General Managers for the past five years. Today he is an also-ran, victim of his own success.
This isn’t to say that JD isn’t a good GM. He’s one of the best and has put together one of the best farm systems in the majors. Baseball, though, is a big poker game with the GM’s when it comes to trades and free agents and it’s quite likely his brethren have learned JD’s “tells”.
In the case of Hamilton, there was too much honesty for his own good. It was well-publicized that Hamilton was willing to let the Rangers top the best offer he got. The longer the process went, the more it became apparent how far the Rangers were willing to go and that was four years, so Jerry DiPoto offered Josh five.
Arizona used Daniels to get what they wanted, which was a lot. By dangling Justin Upton out there, they found so many offers involving the Rangers and other players that could help them that they cut side deals to get all those players and now have no need to trade Upton.
Greinke? Well, the Dodgers are spending like drunken sailors. That was a long-shot anyway.
As for Shields, he was Daniels’ back-up plan should Greinke not work out, but the Rays got tired of waiting so they worked out the deal with Kansas City and probably got a better return than they would have from Texas.
Now speculation is already rife that the Angels will turn around and trade one of their now spare outfielders to the Mets in return for RA Dickey, another Rangers target.
At this point, there’s very little Texas can do to respond to these moves. There’s not much in the free agent market anymore that will strengthen the team. There’s a very good chance the 2013 Rangers will contain a lot of mentions of Profar, Olt, Martin and Perez, youngsters who will be given a good shot at playing time. This is also still a very good team. They may not win the West in 2013, but putting the youngsters in now could pay huge dividends in 2014.
Still, Rangers fans have every right to think the front office should have been more aggressive than they were this off-season. Much as Jon Daniels deserves a lot of credit for building the Rangers into World Series contenders, he has been outmaneuvered at every turn this off-season.
Losing Hamilton doesn’t make me distrust the Rangers’ front office. It does make me think Jon Daniels needs to adapt his style of playing poker.
The more things stay the same, the more they change.
Two consecutive World Series appearances. Three consecutive playoff appearances. Unparalleled success. Brought about by constant change.
Now comes word that there’s a possibility they will also be without Michael Young. Strong rumors have Young going to the Phillies in exchange for a relief pitcher and a prospect provided he waives his 10-5 no trade rights to allow the move.
To Young fans, he has long been known as the Face of the Texas Rangers franchise. To his detractors, he is derisively nicknamed, alternately, “Face” and “Leadership”.
Young had a 2012 not to remember, sinking to new lows in batting average, losing much of his extra base power. The SABR folks will tell you he had one of the worst WAR’s in the last 22 years. On the other hand, to a man his teammates talk about the value of Young’s leadership in the clubhouse. Manager Ron Washington says Young basically runs the clubhouse for the team.
From a pure statistics standpoint, losing Young might not hurt the club substantially. The question is, will that team cohesiveness remain the same if and when he’s gone?
I’m ambivalent about the possibility of Young leaving. I get that his best years are behind him and that he’s a defensive liability, while at the same time suspecting 2012 was the same kind of anomaly Derek Jeter had a couple years ago before coming back with a vengeance.
I also am not one to discount the idea of leadership in a clubhouse. A team, like a business, is composed of lots of disparate elements. Management provides the vision and department heads implement it. Beyond that, we all know work organizations that just seem to run smoother because of a worker bee who sets a tone that others just seem to follow. I’m willing to bet Michael Young is one of those people.
At this writing, there’s no guarantee Josh Hamilton will return to the Rangers. The odds are against Mike Adams returning as well. Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz won’t be able to help until the back half of 2013 at best. If none of the Rangers free agents return AND Young is traded, the question becomes: Do the Rangers have the offensive horses to win WITHOUT Josh Hamilton, Mike Napoli and Michael Young, even if they manage to score Justin Upton from the Diamondbacks?
The past two seasons, Texas has succeeded largely because the parts they lost from the previous year were mostly complementary pieces, replaced by better alternatives (Adrian Beltre, Yu Darvish, Napoli, Adams, Uehara). In 2013, there are going to be key pieces replaced and only time will tell if those pieces are better, worse or about the same as those they replaced.
Diehard fan I might be, but I don’t think Greinke and Upton would be enough to offset the loss of Hamilton, Young and Napoli. Two of the three, maybe. But not all three.
After non-tendering and then re-signing Geovany Soto, Texas basically has one “proven” catcher to go with into Spring Training. Pardon me for being singularly underwhelmed. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays seem to be skirting Security and Exchange Commission rules by trying to corner the market on catchers, having now stockpiled JP Arencibia, John Buck, Travis D’Arnaud and Eli Whiteside. I’m pretty sure they’ve got about four more on their AAA roster as well for safekeeping.
I was hoping Naps would return to the Rangers but it was not to be. We still don’t know if Josh Hamilton will return to the fold or not. Also out there from the Rangers roster are Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Mark Lowe.
But enough about who could be departing. Let’s talk about who I’d love to see arriving via the free agent route. I’d planned this article a month ago but the rigors of the “real job” got in the way. As a result, one of my prime free agent picks was snatched up, when the Giants re-signed Jeremy Affeldt to a 3-year deal. Texas never would’ve gone for three years on a reliever so c’est la vie.
BJ Upton may have gone on the list as well (though I’m not 100% sure of that), but Atlanta snatched him up. There are still quite a few out there, so here are the free agents on my Rangers wish list, starting with the obvious:
1) Zack Greinke: Well why not? He’s the prime pitcher in this year’s free agent class. The Dodgers are said to be the favorite at this point, which I can grudgingly accept. I do NOT want him returning to the Angels. I would LOVE to see Greinke in a Rangers uniform. He’s just the right age, he has playoff experience and his social anxiety issues have nothing to do with him pitching. MLB Radio this morning kept talking about how the “band box” in Arlington would not be good for Greinke, which goes to show how hard reputations die. Rangers pitchers have more than held their own at RBiA the last three years and additional construction in the 2011 off-season actually lessened the famous summer jet stream in 2012. I would love to see a Darvish-Greinke-Harrison Top 3.
2) Adam LaRoche: Put LaRoche at first base and all of a sudden Texas has one of the best defensive infields in baseball. Add in the production which certainly tops Mitch Moreland‘s the past two seasons and you’ve got a good recipe for success, whether Hamilton comes back or not. LaRoche certainly isn’t the top tier in first basemen but he’s at the top of the middle tier.
3) Eric Chavez: Hear me out on this one. Chavez did a great job in a utility role for the Yankees and, unfortunately, will probably re-sign with them now that the Bombers know A-Rod will be out for 4-6 months. Chavez is close to Rangers manager Ron Washington and credited Wash for his Gold Glove in Oakland. As overplayed as the Rangers were and as many nicks that Adrian Beltre got during the 2012 season, a proven guy like Chavez would fit right in with the Rangers.
4) Kyle Farnsworth: The bullpen has to be rebuilt and Farnsworth would be a good addition as a late inning guy. He’s closed and set up for the Rays and he could fill a variety of roles with the Rangers, spelling Joe Nathan when he’s pitched a couple of games in a row and setting up otherwise. Plus he’s one bad-ass martial arts dude.
Beyond that, I think the Rangers will look to improve more via the trade route than free agency. I also don’t expect them to get much done during the Winter Meetings. They don’t have a big history of splashy moves during this time.
This is a team in flux. I can’t wait to see what moves Jon Daniels has in store over the next two months.
The rebuilding of the Texas Rangers is about to begin. How much rebuilding will happen is anyone’s guess at this point.
The first salvo occurred Tuesday, when the Rangers decided not to pick up the options of Scott Feldman and Yoshinori Tateyama. Really no big surprises there. Tateyama, who pitched pretty effectively for Texas in 2011 (2-0, 4.50 ERA in 39 games) was a disaster in 2012 (1-0, 9.00 ERA in 14 games). Feldman, expected to fill the long relief/spot starter role, became a fulltime starting service after Colby Lewis and Neftali Feliz were lost for the year with injuries and Roy Oswalt failed to do well as a starter. The biggest surprise of Feldman’s season is that his 6-11 record and 5.09 ERA was good enough to earn a 0.0 WAR. In other words, 6-11, 5.09 must be considered a replacement level starter. Wow.
The only potential minus here is if Feldman just needed longer to get over microfracture knee surgery in 2011 and posts a great 2013 for someone else. For all the good Jon Daniels has done as GM, this past season saw at least five Rangers cast-offs who performed credible jobs for their new teams: Tommy Hunter, Pedro Strop and Darren O’Day for Baltimore, Cody Eppely and Clay Rapada for the Yankees. Constructing a pitching staff is so often a crap shoot, with many relievers having an awesome year, following up with two terrible seasons, then suddenly finding lightning again. Many teams’ fortunes rise and fall on these variables. If those castaways had been able to put together those seasons for the Rangers, it might have been a post-season difference maker.
So we know Feldman and Tateyama won’t return, unless they re-up with Texas at a major discount. The next step is the free agent process.
Josh Hamilton will get the league standard $13.3 million dollar offer to stay in Texas for another year. He will turn it down and if he signs elsewhere, Texas gets a supplemental draft pick. More unknown is whether the Rangers will make the same offer to catcher Mike Napoli. Because he had a down year, Naps could accept a $13.3 million offer for another year, hoping to turn it around in 2013 and get even bigger bucks and a multi-year deal a year from now. If no offer is received, then we’ll know Texas has committed to totally overhauling the catching.
The Blue Jays are stockpiling catchers, having picked up Yorvit Torrealba after Texas let him go and, just last week, inking Bobby Wilson after his release by the Angels. Since they already had two well-regarded home-grown catchers, it’s a good bet the Blue Jays will deal some of their catching in the off-season. The Rangers have expressed interest in both J.P. Arencibia and Travis D’Arnaud.
Other Rangers getting ready to test the free agent waters include Mike Adams, Koji Uehara, Mark Lowe, Roy Oswalt and Ryan Dempster. Of that group, Oswalt is most certainly gone. Since Adams’ year ended prematurely to injury, the hope is he’ll be willing to sign again with Texas, as he might not now command the dollars he could have. I’d love to see them resign Uehara as well. Down the stretch, he was one of Texas’ most effective pitchers. Texas will allow Lowe to leave and I doubt there’s much interest in getting Dempster to come back, though that could depend on other factors.
If Texas lets both Hamilton and Napoli walk, we could be seeing a pretty big revamping of the offense. There’s a lot of power that would need replacing. That’s why, with Hamilton likely to go elsewhere, I think Texas will do what they can to at least keep Napoli.
I expect Texas to go hard after Zack Greinke in the free agent market, while the Angels will go all out to try to keep his services. If Greinke doesn’t materialize, Texas could pursue a trade with Tampa Bay for David Price.
Another reason to re-sign Napoli: to keep him for a first base platoon with Mitch Moreland. Moreland can hit the ball a long way and is an adequate defender, but at best is a streaky hitter with hot spells that don’t last long enough to off-set the cold snaps. And that’s just against right handed pitchers. Against lefties, Moreland is cold and colder.
There are several directions the Rangers could go this off-season. What’s definite is they’ll make more moves between now and Spring Training than they did the past two years combined. I can’t wait to see how it all shakes out.
GOLD GLOVE AWARDS: For the second straight year, Adrian Beltre nabbed the AL Gold Glove Award for his defensive play at third base. The other two Rangers up for Gold Gloves, David Murphy and Elvis Andrus, didn’t receive the honor. Beltre was an easy choice. That’s easy to say, but judging by the actual award winners, it’s hard to back up. On the one hand, sometimes they give the award to people just because they committed so few errors, despite not having the range of other players at the position. Case in point: JJ Hardy of the Orioles. While I love Elvis, the winner probably should have been Brendan Ryan of the Mariners, who had range and only nine errors. On the other hand, some players win because of past reputation alone. Case in point: Adam Jones of the Orioles, who’s won the award before but had six errors in the field this year, a high number for an outfielder. In other words, there’s no set criteria for winning Gold Gloves. That’s why I’m happy Beltre won. With no set criteria, there was no guarantee he would.
While it is disappointing that the Texas Rangers didn’t get past the Wild Card round of the playoffs, smarter heads like the front office prevail over the fans when it comes to breaking down the season. If we just took the pulse of “message board” fans, you would think Texas won only 65 games all year. In fact, they still managed 93 wins and were a very good team overall. They just weren’t a very good team over the last 14 games.
The question is, what went wrong? The front office will be addressing that over the next few weeks and make changes accordingly. To help them out, I’ve compiled this nifty little summary, compiled in the order I think is the most important to the eventual success level of the team.
INJURIES TO THE STARTING PITCHING STAFF: In 2011, the Rangers were the most blessed team in baseball. The starting five started all but five or six games the entire season. After converting from closer to starter, Neftali Feliz lasted only eight games, seven of them starts. His last start was May 18th before he was lost for the rest of 2012 and the first half of next season as well to Tommy John surgery. Two months to the day later, Colby Lewis went down with an elbow issue, never heard from for the rest of the season.
Jon Daniels gets a lot of credit for making the moves that built the Rangers into a winner, but not every move works every time. When Feliz went down, Texas signed Roy Oswalt. It was considered a brilliant move at the time, but Oswalt was rushed back to the big leagues a week or two too early and flopped as a starter, finishing the season in the Rangers bullpen as the middle reliever.
After Oswalt came Scott Feldman, who was as streaky as they come. Feldman started out 0-6, then won his next six decisions. Unfortunately, Scooter ended up dropping his last five decisions to end at 6-11 with a 5.09 ERA. At the trade deadline, JD acquired Ryan Dempster from the Cubs after failing to land Zack Greinke from the Brewers. To be fair, Dempster did compile a winning ledger with Texas. The problem was, he only beat teams with losing records. He lost every game he pitched against fellow playoff contenders.
BULLPEN INJURIES: Coming into the season, the Texas bullpen was among the strongest in the majors. By mid-season, the pen had become an issue. There was a revolving door in middle relief. After Feliz went down and Oswalt struggled, Alexi Ogando made a spot start and promptly pulled a hamstring early after just three innings of work, losing a month of playing time. Koji Uehara, who ended the season as perhaps the Rangers most effective reliever, went down just the day before Ogando, losing six weeks of time to the DL. Mark Lowe also found his way to the injured list. During the Rangers down month of July they were relying on relievers like Michael Kirkman, Yoshinori Tateyama and rookie Tanner Scheppers. Not a great recipe.
Josh Hamilton, ROLLER COASTER: While “Message Board Fans” put the entire blame on the 2012 season on Michael Young‘s poor offensive showing and Ron Washington’s habit of never giving Young a day off, Josh Hamilton’s June and July swoon had even more to do with it. Potent as the Rangers line-up can be, it is Josh Hamilton and Adrian Beltre who pace the offense. Hamilton was the AL’s Player of the Month for both April and May, but fell off the face of the Earth in June and July, batting a paltry .208 and striking out on three pitches more than any player has a right to. Hamilton compiled a 4.7 WAR for the season according to Fangraphs.com, but that’s deceiving. By the end of May, Josh was at a 3.3 WAR already and pacing towards almost a 10 WAR for the season. While a drop-off from those lofty heights could be expected, it’s still pretty reasonable to assume he should have given the Rangers 6-7 WAR production for the season. In other words, Hamilton probably cost the Rangers more games from June to October than Michael Young did all season on the basis of WAR.
TOO MANY PLAYERS WITH DOWN YEARS: Much has been written about Michael Young’s off year. Not as much was said about the down years of Mike Napoli and Ian Kinsler. Tampa Bay Rays skipper Joe Maddon called 2011 the Year of the Napoli. There was no better hitter in baseball over the second half of 2011. This season wasn’t nearly as kind. Napoli fell from a .320/.414/.631 with 30 HR and 75 RBI to .227/.343/.469 with 25 HR and 56 RBI. Kinsler had essentially the same batting average in 2012, but his power numbers were down, his walks were down and his strikeouts were up. He also regressed defensively, leading all AL second basemen in errors. Nobody, though, sunk as much as Michael Young. Young’s batting average went from .338 to .277, his RBI from 106 to 67 and from 58 extra base hits, he sank down to 38 in 2012. By the WAR stat, only Jeff Francouer had a poorer year.
DEPRECIATION OF THE RUNNING GAME: In their presser, Ron Washington called a question about the fall-off in the Rangers running attack “nitpicking”. I’m a Wash fan, but the question wasn’t nitpicking. As pointed out in a previous post, the fall-off from 2011 to 2012 was precipitous. Stolen bases were down from 143 to 91 while getting caught one less time in 2012 than they did in 2011. They were also picked off seven more times in 2012 compared to 2011. Conversely, opposing teams stole 106 bases on Texas in 2012 compared to 85 in 2011. Overall, that’s a difference of 73 bases from a year ago. By season’s end, the Rangers had virtually stopped running. Over the last 30 days of the season, Texas had only three steals and were caught stealing four times. Sorry Wash, that’s not a little thing.
WHEN BEING HEALTHY HURTS: Much has already been made of the Rangers offensive malaise over the last week and a half of the season. Wash has already said maybe he didn’t rest his regulars enough. In a couple of cases, there could very well be something to that. Take the case of Nelson Cruz. On one hand, Cruz set personal highs in RBI with 90 and runs scored with 86. On the other, Cruz only topped last year’s RBI total by three while playing in 35 more games. His home runs were down to 24 after hitting 29 a year ago. In 2011 his OPS was .821, in 2012 it was .779. Before this season, Cruz had five different stints on the disabled list over the previous two seasons. While his bat was missed, it could be surmised he had the advantage of being fresher when he returned from those DL trips. The same could be said of Ian Kinsler. 2011 was the first year in a while that Kins was healthy enough to play virtually the entire season. Playing over 150 games two years in a row, for someone with an injury history, could take its toll more than other players. Multitudes of articles have been written about innings counts for young pitchers and pitchers coming off injuries, but but hardly about game counts for young position players or position players coming off injuries. It may very well have had some effect on certain players.
THE MYSTERIOUS STOMACH VIRUS: This came early in the season, but who knows if it had an ultimate impact on the Rangers’ lack of energy at season’s end. In the month of May, Mike Napoli came down with a stomach virus. It spread through the clubhouse quickly. Ian Kinsler got it. Josh Hamilton got it. A host of Rangers players missed a game or two because of it. Nobody was affected more than Derek Holland. The virus caused Dutch to lose 20 pounds. At the end of May while battling the virus, Dutch didn;t make it out of the second inning, giving up 8 runs to the Mariners. Five days later, Holland’s fastball velocity was down so sharply he was pulled after 5 1/3 gritty innings. He would miss the next month getting his weight back up and back into playing shape. Whether this had anything to do with Holland’s dismal 4.67 ERA on the season is uncertain. Stories have come out in the last couple of seasons about players taking a long time to get their strength back after contracting Desert Fever and recovering from appendectomies. There’s always the chance the stomach virus had more of an impact than just the two-week span it was spreading in the clubhouse.
On the positive side, all these things happened to the Rangers in 2012 and they still managed to get to 93 wins on the season and a berth in the Wild Card playoff. This is still a team with a lot of potential.
Next Up: Looking ahead to potential off-season moves.
- The Running Game (Or Lack Thereof) (40yearrangerfan.mlblogs.com)
- Nolan Ryan: Josh Hamilton picked worst time to quit chewing tobacco (aol.sportingnews.com)
This was going to be the “Why The Season Broke Down” analysis post. Instead, Texas Rangers President Nolan Ryan, General Manager Jon Daniels and Manager Ron Washington decided today would be a great day to hold their first post-season press conference to talk about the season ending prematurely and what could transpire in the future.
First off, Dallas Morning News writer Evan Grant put to rest one rumor that has run rampant among Rangers on-line fans. He noted Jon Daniels not only gave Ron Washington his endorsement as manager of the club, but that both appeared quite relaxed and comfortable with each other. Many Rangers fans had imagined a power struggle between Wash and JD over the handling of highly regarded prospect Mike Olt after his promotion to the parent club. I never bought the whole power struggle conspiracy theory in the first place. Hopefully, this presser puts those rumors to rest.
Ah, but there was much to report beyond Ron Washington’s job security, with the biggest item reserved for the biggest free agent on the market this off-season, one Josh Hamilton. Daniels said the Rangers are NOT going to make Hamilton an offer during the exclusive negotiating window and will allow him to explore his options first. This is a gutsy call on JD’s part, but maybe not as risky as one might think.
Going into the off-season, Hamilton oftentimes stated the odds of him remaining a member of the Rangers was about 50-50. He also was quoted on more than one occasion he owed it to the Players Union to get the best deal possible, but would give the Rangers the first shot at his services. Daniels decided they’d waive the first shot. I find it highly doubtful Hamilton would have accepted the Rangers first offer no matter how generous because of his allegiance to the Players Union, so the front office passing up the chance to make that first offer might be much ado about nothing.
In addition, knowing Hamilton’s spiritual side, I believe (but have no proof) Josh’s agent and the Rangers already have a gentleman’s agreement to return to the Rangers after all the offers have come in to give Texas the last chance to re-sign him. That said, I’m sure the Rangers already have a final price and contract length in mind and will not hesitate to let Josh go if someone else offers him a better deal. That’s what they did a year ago with CJ Wilson and that’s what they’ll do here.
More from the presser: Daniels said no decisions have been made yet on coaching staff, the 2013 plans for Michael Young haven’t been discussed and that everyone in the organization accepts responsibility for the disappointing way the season ended. Washington admitted he probably played his regulars too hard and could have rested them more in the summer to keep them fresher for the stretch drive. He also said, despite a disappointing season, he still has faith that 2nd baseman Ian Kinsler can still do the job.
Reading between the lines, I think there will be casualties among the Rangers coaching staff, with hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh being the top candidate to face the chopping block. Young’s fate likely rests on the outcome of the Josh Hamilton sweepstakes. If Hamilton goes, Young stays and vice versa. Daniels is right about everyone taking responsibility and should be lauded for including himself. After all, while the moves he made during the season were all considered the right ones, the fact is they didn’t work out. Roy Oswalt. Ryan Dempster. Geovany Soto.
For Wash’s part, I applaud him for addressing his fault of playing his regulars into the ground, but it won’t be enough for his detractors. Human nature, you know. You just want someone to admit they made a mistake. Then, when they do, you jump up and say, “See, that just proves what an idiot he is!” Fans. Gotta love them. Especially since I’m a fan (but a pro-Wash one).
Surprisingly, Mike Napoli’s impending free agency was not discussed during this press conference.
Two last tidbits. Daniels said the Rangers likely will carry a slightly larger payroll than they did this year. And Daniels said the Rangers still aren’t in a rebuilding phase. That’s a strong message, telling the faithful “Even if we lose Josh Hamilton, we’re planning on reloading for 2014.” Of course, that could also mean Mike Olt and Jurickson Profar aren’t in the 2013 season plans.
It’s going to be an interesting off-season. I can’t wait to see how they’re planning to remold this team.