Results tagged ‘ Jurickson Profar ’

85 or 64 Wins? Whose Prediction Is Closer?

Star of the WeekOne thing is clear, though not scientifically proven, by reading fan comments on social media and message boards: most of them think their teams are better than what they’ve shown.

 

I figure on average, fans think their baseball teams are about ten wins better than the number of wins they end the season with. Even fans who know their teams will be terrible figure they can’t suck as badly as they eventually show us they do. On the other end of the spectrum, one only has to look at teams that win 100 games a year routinely, as the Yankees did in the early 2000’s, to know that their fans thought they should have won 110 games every year, if not more. This is really the “Backseat Manager” effect, that strange affliction that tells us we could do a better job managing our team than the current man in the position.

 

All this as preface to this Rangers fan still thinking, even without Yu Darvish, his team still is capable of being an 85 win team. The odds are great that they won’t get to 85. The bullpen beginning the season is nothing to brag about. The offense has the core back from injury but not enough depth to deal with any injuries to that core again. The starting rotation is actually the strong point despite the loss of their ace. It’s certainly a stronger rotation front to back than the one the Rangers rolled out most nights in 2014. Yeah, 85 wins seems a tad optimistic, but dang it, that’s the potential this team has.

 

Even if I’m ten wins off, 75 wins is a darn sight better than Bruce Bukiet thinks Texas will do. I should say what Bukiet’s mathematical model says they will do. Bukiet has the skins. He’s a mathematician who also runs a gambling analysis website. His winner’s picks have been pretty accurate. Here’s what CBS News wrote about Bukiet’s predictions last year and the chart of this year’s picks:

 

“Before the start of the 2014 season, Bukiet correctly predicted that Detroit would go on to win the American League Central, the Dodgers would win the National League West, St. Louis would win the Central and Washington would win the NL East.”

Bukiet 2015 Predictions

 

What I quibble with is not the top but the bottom of the standings. Bukiet’s mathematical model says the Rangers will finish 64-98 in 2015. Let that sink in. 64 wins. The Rangers of a year ago won 67 games, most of them without Prince Fielder, Shin-Soo Choo, Derek Holland and Mitch Moreland. Darvish missed about the last quarter of the season and Jurickson Profar, the expected second baseman, played zero games. Zero.

 

Fielder is back this year, as is Choo and Moreland. Holland is here for the whole season. Colby Lewis has a year’s experience on his new hip and was visibly better in the second half of 2014 than the first half. Nick Martinez and Rougned Odor are two sophomores with a year of experience under their belts.

 

In other words, barring injury (and every pre-season prediction doesn’t consider injury), the Rangers offense is better than it was a year ago, the starting rotation is better than it was a year ago. The bullpen begins the year sketchy but the reinforcements on the DL are not expected out for long.

 

Maybe my 85 win hopes are ten games better than they’ll probably finish, but Bukiet’s 64 win prediction? No way.

Texas-Oakland kicks off the season Monday night. Time to forget last year and make this year count.

baseball-bat-and-ball-on-grass-overhead-view

 

 

Looking Ahead To 2015: Shortstop

Elvis Andrus: $15 million manYou’d think there’s not much to say about shortstop for the Texas Rangers and you’re not entirely wrong. Elvis Andrus is the Rangers shortstop, he has been since 2009 and, with his new contract officially kicked in, he’s making a lot of money to be the shortstop in Texas for a while.

Yet that didn’t stop the off-season conjecture that Andrus could find his way to another team via trade. Texas had a wealth of middle infield talent, even without considering Jurickson Profar, who missed all of 2014 with an issue with a shoulder muscle. While Profar was originally pegged as the Rangers second sacker entering 2014, he’s considered a better shortstop than second baseman.

The good news for Elvis is one of those middle infielders, Luis Sardinas, went to the Brewers in the Yovani Gallardo trade. Also, Profar hasn’t played in a year and will need some seasoning in the minors for at least a couple of months to get the cobwebs off his game. The bad news for Rangers fans is Elvis regressed in 2014, making that new contract of his an albatross when it comes to trade talks.

On the surface, Elvis didn’t have a horrible offensive year for Texas. In fact, in some ways it was an improvement. Never a power hitter, Andrus hit a career high 35 doubles last year and his .263 average wasn’t much under his career .272 mark. There were, however, plenty of black flags in his game. While Elvis stole a decent 27 bases, that was down 15 from his career high 42 in 2013, plus he got caught stealing a whopping 15 times, leading the American League in that category. His RBI dropped from 67 to 41, his OPS went down for the second consecutive year and he grounded into a career high 21 double plays. His overall WAR of 1.0 by Baseball-Reference, 1.3 by Fangraphs were both career lows.

Rangers fans have known Elvis for his defense and 2014 was not kind to those fans at all. Elvis committed 18 errors, his highest mark in three years. His .973 fielding percentage was the third lowest of his 6-year career. For only the second time, his defensive runs saved above average was a negative number and the worst of his career. Finally, his UZR rating was easily a career low.

Some of this could be attributed to the meager team Andrus had playing around him. He had a rookie second baseman playing next to him most of the season and at times it appeared Elvis made throws that had no chance of beating a runner to first. Maybe he was trying to hard to make things happen.

On the other hand, even with injuries to Derek Holland and Jurickson Profar making for a lot of talk in Spring Training, there was still room to talk in less than glowing terms about Elvis Andrus. For the first time in his career, he didn’t play winter ball. That isn’t a sin, but not only did he not play winter ball, he didn’t do ANYTHING in the off-season. No workout regimen, no batting practice. Elvis was an off-season couch potato. He showed up at camp heavy and he never seemed to get the speed back during the season. He could still make you marvel at his range deep in the hole to stop a ball, but the magical Elvis we’re used to was gone.

Now it’s a year later and we’re not hearing bad things about Elvis heading into training camp. In fact, the first thing heard at Fan Fest was Elvis has lost 15 pounds and is working hard to prepare for the 2015 season. He’s also quoted as saying he absolutely loves new manager Jeff Bannister. Rangers fans can only hope it’s true.

Elvis Andrus will never be an offensive power hitter. The Rangers don’t need him to. They do, however, need him as a better base stealer, a better gap hitter and back to where he once was defensively. We already know from Bannister that Elvis won’t bunt nearly as much as he used to, as Bannister doesn’t believe in bunting early in the game like Ron Washington did. If he can return to the offensive numbers he put up from 2011-2013 (.279/.341/.357) with the defense he was known for, he’ll either make Jurickson Profar a nice piece of trade bait for Jon Daniels and the Rangers or he’ll make himself a trade target again.

Looking Ahead To 2015: Second Base

texas-rangers-logoWhen you think about it, the first car in the Texas Rangers’ train wreck of a 2014 season went off the tracks in Spring Training at the keystone position.

The off-season saw Ian Kinsler sent packing to the Detroit Tigers in a straight-up swap for Prince Fielder, a good old-fashioned blockbuster trade. Kinsler was expendable because it was time for his heir apparent to take over, #1 Rangers prospect (and one of  the top prospects in all of MLB) Jurickson Profar.

Profar joined the parent club on May 20, 2013 after Kinsler hit the disabled list and ended up sticking with the club for the rest of the season, serving in a “Super Utility” role for Ron Washington’s club and putting up a somewhat respectable .234/.308/.336 line with 6 home runs and 26 RBI in 85 games. While his defense wasn’t on par with Kinsler, the Rangers front office determined the 20-year-old was ready to take over in much the same way Elvis Andrus took over the shortstop role in 2009.

Early in Spring Training a small glitch popped up. Profar was having some throwing issues. The problem was a slight tear in a very small muscle in the shoulder. Rest was the prescription but, as the exhibition season was drawing to a close, it was clear Profar wasn’t able to begin the season in Arlington. As it turned out, Profar wouldn’t see a single inning of big league game action in 2014. He didn’t even see rehab time in the minors.

The Rangers started 2014 with a platoon at second base consisting of Josh Wilson and Donnie Murphy. The two utility players tried their best but, after a month, it was clear they weren’t the long-term solution for the season.

Which brings us to the real subject of today’s post.

Rougned Odor. Courtesy of Wikipedia.

Rougned Odor. Courtesy of Wikipedia.

On May 8th, Texas jettisoned Wilson and opened up a 40-man roster position for Rougned Odor, who started the season at AA Frisco. Odor would stay with the Rangers for the rest of the year, playing in 114 games with a .259/.297/.402 line, contributing 9 home runs and 48 RBI to the last place Rangers. Odor had defensive issues and many a Rangers TV pre-game show featured footage of Wash working with the 19-year-old prodigy on the finer points of playing up the middle.

Odor earned a reputation for attitude in the minors and was a focal point of many bench-clearing brawls and the subject of at least one fight-related suspension. Still, that attitude helped keep his fellow teammates’ morale high during a trying  2014 campaign. It brought to mind the 2013 second baseman, Kinsler, who famously followed a big home win over the Angels in 2009 with an audible “Get the f*** off our field!” and followed up his trade to the Tigers by telling Sports Illustrated “I hope the Rangers go 0-162 this year” (he wasn’t that far off). Odor plays the game with passion 100% of the time.

He’s also improved at every level he’s played. With Short-A Spokane in 2011, he was .262/.323/.352. He followed up with a 2012 .259/.313/.400 for Low-A Hickory, improving his power numbers. Odor began 2013 with High-A Myrtle Beach, putting up an even better .305/.369/.454, earning a promotion to Frisco, where he actually did even better, putting up a slash line of  .306/.354/.530. At the time of his May call-up in 2014, Odor was at .279/.314/.450 for Frisco.

Jurickson Profar. Courtesy of Wikipedia

Jurickson Profar. Courtesy of Wikipedia

Fast forward to today. Roogie, who just turned 20 February 3rd, is unquestionably the starting second baseman for the 2015 Texas Rangers, while Jurickson Profar, who himself turns just 21 in another week, finds his shoulder muscle healed but without a place on the major league roster. This is a good thing. After missing a full season to injury, getting his playing legs back at AAA Round Rock is both prudent and not harmful to the Rangers’ chances of winning at the big league level.

Putting up his 2014 numbers over a full 162 game season would put Odor in line for about 13 home runs and 68 RBI. Injuries aside, I’ll take the over. With his record of consistent improvement, let’s say 14 home runs and 75 RBI (more optimistic than the projections I’ve seen on Fangraphs). Last year, all Rangers second basemen combined hit 10 home runs (9 by Odor) and knocked in 55 runs (48 by Odor). Like first base with a healthy Prince Fielder, the Rangers should get a lot more pop in 2015 at second base. With the slow-footed Fielder at the corner, Roogie needs to increase his range defensively. Do that and Rangers fans are dancing in ecstasy.

And if, for some reason, Odor suffers a sophomore slump, Profar will be big league ready by the end of May. Sure beats Josh Wilson and Donnie Murphy.

Texas Rangers Stars Of The Week: 5/19-5/26

Star of the WeekEvery Monday, this space names the Texas Rangers Stars of the Week. These are the guys who went above and beyond during the previous week. Each week two position players and one pitcher get special mentions. For position players, there’s a Star of the Week for a full week’s performance and one recognizing an outstanding single game. The pitching Star of the Week could be either.

Star of the WeekPosition Player Star of the Week (Single Game):

The Rangers have both the youngest and the second youngest players in the big leagues and they’re platooning at second base. Luis Sardinas is the second youngest but he only plays about 25% of the games at second base. The other 75% goes to the youngest player in the majors, Rougned Odor. While he did wow Rangers fans with an upper deck shot for his first major league home run a couple of weeks ago, he was still hovering at the Mendoza line at the start of the week. But oh what he did on Saturday gave fans their first real inkling why the kid with the funny name (and the younger brother with the same funny name) is one of the top prospects in the Rangers’ system. In the top of the fourth inning, with the Rangers leading 2-1, Odor smacked a line drive that went just over the glove of Miguel Cabrera and down the right field line. By the time the Tigers’ Torii Hunter got it back to the infield, Roogie was standing on third base with a triple and two RBI to make it 4-1. Three innings later, Odor faced highly touted rookie Corey Knebel, making his major league début. With the bases full of Rangers, Odor went deep to right, just missing a home run and ending up with the same result, a triple. This one plated three runs. In the ninth, Odor blooped a double to left off knuckleball throwing utility player Danny Worth and came home to score on a Michael Choice double to close out a 12-2 Rangers victory. Odor’s final line: 4 for 5 with a run, an infield single, a double, two triples and 5 RBI. Meanwhile in Arizona, injured second baseman Jurickson Profar must have felt a chill go down his spine. Here’s the video of Odor’s big day:

Star of the WeekPosition Player Star of the Week (Full Week): 

For the first time in three weeks, there was some competition for the Offensive Player of the Week. The middle of the line-up, Alex Rios and Adrian Beltre, both performed in above average fashion, hitting above .400 with an OPS above 1.000. Still, there’s a lot to like about how the bottom third of the Rangers order hit and even more to like about the change made at catcher. At the start of the week, the Rangers optioned J.P. Arencibia to AAA Round Rock after only managing to accrue eight hits in 60 at bats over the course of 20 games. Even for a player with power potential, a .133 average isn’t going to cut it in the big leagues, especially if you add two passed balls, seven wild pitches allowed, two errors and just an 18% caught stealing rate. Texas recalled Chris Gimenez, a journeyman catcher playing for his fourth big league team in five years. All Gimenez did was get five hits in his first three games, 62.5% of the total Arencibia managed in 20. While Rios and Beltre played more games with bigger success in all departments, Giminez added instant offense to a position that woefully lacked all season long, getting 5 hits in his first 13 at bats with a double and two RBI. Gimenez got himself a lot of new fans and Twitter followers over the past seven days.

Star of the WeekPitching Star of the Week: 

The toughest part about the last couple weeks of Rangers baseball is knowing that beyond Yu Darvish, it is doubtful a Rangers starting pitcher is even going to make it to six innings, let alone seven. Colby Lewis, considering his age and the injuries he’s coming back from, is probably six innings max on a good day. Robbie Ross Jr. was getting shelled and got moved back to the bullpen, Scott Baker got a start and will get replaced this week by Joe Saunders, Nick Tepesch just got recalled from Round Rock and hasn’t yet established what we can expect from him. And then there’s Nick Martinez. Following two early season starts, Martinez went to the bullpen for five games, then returned to a starting role due to the season-ending injuries to Martin Perez and Matt Harrison. His first two starts back in the rotation have been against two of the highest powered offenses in the American League. Against the Blue Jays May 18th, the rookie gave up only a single run in five innings of work. Saturday, he drew the start against 7-1 Rick Porcello and the Detroit Tigers, featuring three of the AL’s top hitters in former Ranger Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. While Porcello was getting shelled for the first time this season, Martinez more than held up his end, going six strong innings and giving up just a single run. Martinez has yet to top six innings in any start but he’s shown no fear of big league hitters despite never pitching above AA ball before this year. His performance Saturday was just one of the shots in the arm the Rangers have needed:

The Week That Was & The Week That Will Be

Talk about taking the bad with the good or the good with the bad. Just a few days ago most folks, including a high percentage of Rangers fans, were ready to write the season off after the announcement that Prince Fielder would be the latest Rangers player to miss the rest of the season due to injury. On the same day, Rangers brass announced Jurickson Profar had re-aggravated his shoulder injury and would miss significantly more time than expected and might not appear with the Rangers until 2015. Add them to the aforementioned losses of Perez and Harrison and you’ve got the makings of big trouble.

So what did the Rangers do? First, they made several roster changes. Gone was Arencibia, replaced by Gimenez. Fielder got placed on the DL and utility infielder Donnie Murphy got activated. Ross went to the bullpen, Baker was given his next start. And then, to the surprise of just about everyone but their manager, the Rangers started winning again.

It started humbly enough, gaining a split at home with the Mariners before heading out for the longest road trip of the season, 11 games starting with four a AL Central leading Detroit. Despite having been swept in Cleveland, the Tigers already had a big lead in the Central due to a strong starting rotation and an offense that could beat you with both power and speed. Despite long odds, the Rangers went into Detroit and not only took three of four from the Tigers, they beat them into submission by a combined score of 35-15. Along the way, they beat 7-1 Rick Porcello 12-2 and then followed it up by pounding Justin Verlander for nine runs en route to a 12-4 pasting on Sunday. The Claw and Antlers, a staple of the 2010 World Series team, appeared again in the series and Texas got incredible production from the lesser names like Gimenez, Odor, Leonys Martin and Michael Choice.

The road trip continues all this week with a four game set in Minnesota against the surprising Twins (and the original Washington Senators) followed by three in the Rangers’ original home of Washington DC as the Senators reincarnated against the current team residing there, the NL East Nationals. The good news is the Rangers have three day games remaining in the week. Last week, all four of their wins came during the day and Texas is now 11-5 in day games following their Memorial Day win over the Twins to start this week. Texas only needs two more wins to garner a winning record for the road trip. If they manage that, which would put them at 3-4 for the week at the least, I think most fans would be happy considering the shape of the current roster.

Please. Make. It. Stop.

If you believe in forever

Then life is but a simple dream

If there’s a Rangers DL list

You know you’ve got a hell of a team

Team, team

 

Martin gave us shutouts

Derek won Game 4 ‘gainst St. Loo

And Matty won 18 in two thousand 12

He was gonna mash 50 home runs

Remember Prince that way

They’ve all found a spot we rue

And that is on the shelf

 

If you believe in forever

Then life is but a simple dream

If there’s a Rangers DL list

You know you’ve got a hell of a team

Team, team

(Sung to the tune “Rock and Roll Heaven” by The Righteous Brothers)

Just a few short days ago, my wish for the week was to get through the next seven days without another injury. No such luck. In one fell swoop Thursday, Rangers fans found themselves greeted with the news that 1) Prince Fielder is gone for the year because of a herniated disc that requires surgery; 2) Jurickson Profar is probably out for the year after re-aggravating his shoulder injury; and 3) 5th outfielder Daniel Robertson could be headed to the DL. And oh yeah, if Robertson DOES go to the DL it’s partly Ian Kinsler‘s fault! It was the ex-Ranger’s pop fly which resulted in the collision between Robertson and Alex Rios that took Robertson out of the game.

Nobody in baseball has used the disabled list more in 2014 than the Texas Rangers. In fact, one could make the case for the players on the DL being a better team than the one the Rangers now have on the field. Let’s do a side by side comparison:

Texas Rangers

1B           Mitch Moreland

2B           Rougned Odor

SS           Elvis Andrus

3B           Adrian Beltre

C             Robinson Chirinos

LF            Shin-Soo Choo

CF           Leonys Martin

RF           Alex Rios

DH          Michael Choice

SP           Yu Darvish

SP           Colby Lewis

SP           Nick Tepesch

SP           Nick Martinez

RP           Alexi Ogando

RP           Robbie Ross

RP           Neal Cotts

 

Texas Rangers DL

1B           Prince Fielder

2B           Donnie Murphy

SS           Jurickson Profar

3B           Kevin Kouzmanoff

C             Geovany Soto

LF            None

CF           Engel Beltre

RF           Jim Adduci

DH          None

SP           Martin Perez

SP           Matt Harrison

SP           Derek Holland

SP           Joe Saunders

RP           Tanner Scheppers

RP           Joseph Ortiz

RP           Pedro Figueroa

Rangers DL 5-23-14

We’d have to fill in the DL team with an outfielder and DH from AAA Round Rock, which could be Brad Snyder and Bryan Peterson. If Robertson hits the DL, he’d likely replace Snyder, since Snyder then would probably fill his roster spot on the Rangers. Still, while the healthy Texas Rangers offense, even without Prince Fielder, is the superior team to the Rangers DL offense, a case could be made for the Rangers DL pitching staff being stronger than the Rangers Healthy pitching staff. At the very least, three of the four member starting rotation would more than hold their own against the current healthy Rangers rotation.

What has happened to this team in 2014 is beyond comprehension. If there’s any silver lining in the dark cloud, it is this: the Rangers, like every team, has insurance policies on all their players to cover such things. Thus, even though Matt Harrison and Prince Fielder by themselves command hefty salaries, the Rangers will recoup part of their salaries to the tune of over $10 million. Thus, it is not beyond reason the Rangers could make a play for one significant free agent still out there, Kendrys Morales. The former Angel and Mariner mashed 23 home runs and knocked in 80 runs for Seattle a year ago and has 10 homers in 32 games at Globe Life Park, the most home runs he has in any visitors park. Picking up Morales, a switch hitter, would allow him to DH when a right-hander is on the mound while playing first base against a southpaw so Mitch Moreland, a career .231 hitter against lefties, isn’t exposed.

Of course, knowing the Rangers luck this year, Morales would come in and suffer a season-ending injury within a week, much like Kevin Kouzmanoff when he filled in during Adrian Beltre‘s early season DL stint. Speaking of which, I have a message for Adrian: DON’T DO ANYTHING THAT WILL AGGRAVATE YOUR HAMSTRING!!! I know you’re going to want to play like Superman with Prince gone but you’re 35 years old now. You can only do what you can do and if you try to do more, you just might join the Rangers DL team yourself.

On the good news side, the Rangers have won consecutive games for the first time since May 8th and 9th. They haven’t had a three game winning streak since April 21st through the 23rd when they swept the first place Oakland A’s, of all teams, in Oakland. The giddiness of that sweep seems so long ago now. To make it three in a row, Scott Baker has to better Anibal Sanchez tonight in his first start of the season. After that Nick Martinez, slated to start the season at AA Frisco, squares up against 7-1 Rick Porcello, while Colby Lewis draws Justin Verlander on Sunday. Let’s just say the Rangers have their work cut out for them this weekend.

And as for the injuries, I repeat the headline today. Please. Make. It. Stop.

Is It Time To Shake Things Up?

Here we are, a week into the baseball season’s second month. Statistics start meaning a little bit more than the first three weeks where a hot or cold streak looks great or horrific on paper but signify nothing more than a hot or cold streak. So far, the Rangers have done about as well as could be expected considering all the injuries they’re up against. Now, however, we’re starting to get more of a feel for this year’s team and, quite frankly, it doesn’t look so good. The offense has been spotty, the pitching is growing more suspect by the day and defense seems a dirty word so the Rangers avoid playing it well at all costs.

There are still a number of Rangers who will be arriving in the coming months to help: Derek Holland, Jurickson Profar and Geovany Soto. That’s fine for June and July. The problem is, Texas still has a slew of games to play in May and June before the first reinforcement arrives and this team needs help NOW.

Jurickson

Jurickson Profar: Out Until June

Case in point: When Profar went down with an injury in his throwing arm, the Rangers went with a second base platoon of Josh Wilson and Donnie Murphy. This looked like another one of Jon Daniels’ genius moves, getting two utility guys on the cheap and having them perform way above expectations. On April 17, the Wilson-Murphy combo was hitting .267 with 4 doubles, 7 RBI, 6 walks, a sacrifice and two sac flies. Since that time, they’ve hit a combined .197 and, while they have one more RBI at 8, they also have 23 strikeouts and just three walks in 71 at bats. In other words, they’re showing us who they’ve always been- spare pieces expected to shoulder more of a load than usual. The Rangers have at least a month left before Profar returns and I’m not even convinced it won’t be even longer period. Wilson and Murphy displaced Adam Rosales and Brent Lillibridge from the roster. Rosales in particular is doing a decent job at AAA Round Rock. He’s now up to .283 on the season with 7 doubles and 5 homers. Rosales has some pop in his bat and can play second, third and first. At this point, he might offer more to the Rangers than they’re getting from Murphy so why not give him a shot?

There aren’t any real solutions in the catching department. Soto is out for at least another month, the catchers at Round Rock aren’t anything to write home about and Jorge Alfaro is probably two years away from the big club. Texas is just going to have to lump it with Robinson Chirinos and J.P. Arencibia, unless JD decides to trade for a proven catcher.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff still needs sorting out. While the starting staff is starting to settle down, at least until Holland returns in June or July, it will probably remain inconsistent for a while. Matt Harrison came back from the DL and had one good and one bad start. That will likely continue for the next 4-6 starts as he works his way back. Same thing applies with Colby Lewis. Despite almost two years between big league appearances, he’s performed well overall, but not well enough to guarantee any more than six innings in any start. After an incredibly hot start, Martin Perez has looked awful his last two starts. Robbie Ross has had three consecutive bad outings as well. Veteran Joe Saunders is now on a rehab assignment but you won’t find many Rangers fans waiting for him to return.

It's time to bring Nick Tepesch up.

It’s time to bring Nick Tepesch up.

One solution is Nick Tepesch. The righthander had a terrible spring and got sent back to the minors midway through Spring Training despite contributing four wins in 17 starts for Texas in 2013. At Round Rock, Tepesch has pitched like the ace of a AAA staff, going 6-1 with a 1.58 ERA, 41 strikeouts and only 9 walks in 38 innings of work. Tepesch has nothing left to prove at AAA and, if anything, is more likely to give the Rangers 7 innings every time out than Robbie Ross will. Ross earned his rotation spot with a strong spring but, like any walk of life, hasn’t proved it lately. Ross has been a valuable bullpen commodity. It’s time he returned there.

Speaking of the bullpen, it has quickly turned from one of the Rangers strong suits to a mess of stinking you know what. Alexi Ogando has gotten overworked and gave up six hits and a walk in just a third of an inning of work in Colorado last night. Ogando has done nothing to sway me from my earlier stated opinion that by seasons end, he will be a non-factor on the Rangers. Also worrisome is Neal Cotts, who thus far (1-2, 5.68 ERA, 3 Blown Saves) has not come close to being the pitcher he was in 2013 (8-3, 1.11 ERA). Because Perez, Lewis, Harrison and Ross haven’t been able to go deep into games, the bullpen is pitching too many innings. If Texas were to bring up Tepesch and send Ross back to relief, it will help settle down a combustible situation. Opening Day starter Tanner Scheppers will return soon as well and should go back to being the 8th inning guy.

It’s only two players, but adding Rosales for Murphy, then adding Tepesch while moving Ross to relief and placing Ogando on the DL for whatever reason they can come up with, could help this team navigate through a tough month of May in better shape than they’re in now.

The Friday/Saturday Sundry: 4/25/14 -Or- The Apropos Rerun

 

The good news is Adrian Beltre returns to the Texas Rangers line-up tonight after a two-week stay on the DL. Matt Harrison will follow with his first start in over a year on Sunday. The bad news: the man who so ably filled in for Beltre, reigning AL Player of the Week Kevin Kouzmanoff, is himself disabled list-bound. Kouzmanoff, who sat out the last two games of the Oakland series, has a herniated disc in his back. If it doesn’t respond by the end of the weekend, Kouzmanoff will undergo surgery. A herniated disc is what put Matt Harrison on the shelf after just three starts last year.

 

When it comes to injuries, this team seems snake-bit in 2014. So much so I thought it would be appropriate, for those who missed it in the off-season, to run my tongue-in-cheek piece on the Rangers selling the naming rights to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington to insurance corporation Globe Life. Now, I’m beginning to wonder if it wasn’t as tongue-in-cheek as originally thought. This was first written before anything had happened to Geovany Soto, Beltre, Pedro Figueroa, Tanner Scheppers, Jim Adduci, Joe Saunders, Engel Beltre and now Kouzmanoff. Anyway, here’s hoping the weekend in Seattle goes as well as the early week visit to Oakland. Go Rangers!

Globe Life Park copy

The Texas Rangers sold the naming rights to Rangers Ballpark in Arlington February 5th, inking a ten-year deal that turns RBiA into Globe Life Park for the next decade. The deal was surprising because, until the day before the announcement, the public wasn’t even aware the Rangers were pursuing any naming rights deals. I wonder if this is how it went down.

The Scene: Principal owner Bob Simpson’s office. Simpson is sitting at his desk, having a chat with General Manager Jon Daniels.

“Yes, Mr. Simpson?”

“JD, what’s going on around here? Every time I turn around, I hear about somebody else getting hurt and it isn’t even Spring Training yet!”

“Well, sir, I…”

(Phone rings. Simpson puts it on speaker)

“Ann I told you, no interruptions!!!”

“Yes, sir, but there’s a gentleman out here and he appears very insistent on seeing you.”

(Door Opens)

GANGSTER“Bob, JD, how are youse guys doing? It’s a bee-yoo-ti-ful day in Arlington, ain’t it?”

“Sir, I own the ballclub and you can’t just come barging in…”

“Tsk, tsk, Boobala. Is that any way to act towards someone who wants to do youse guys a favor?”

“A favor? What kind of favor could you do for me?”

“I noticed youse guys have been getting a lot of players, how shall I put it delicately, incapacitated. I can guarantee I can make that go away. Mr. Daniels, I understand you gots a player in Venezuela. Let me check my notes here…a Joseph Ortiz, am I right?”

“Yeah, he pitched for us last year. He was up for a bullpen role this year too.”

“And he got his foot run over by a car. My my my. Ain’t dat a shame? The accidental things that can happen to a player. Unless it weren’t no accident, if you know what I mean.”

“I don’t know what you’re implying, but who are you anyway???”

“Just call me Vinny for now. Now, there’s also Mr. Chirinos. I believe he’s a catcher.”

“He has a chance at being our third string catcher out of spring training.”

“Got hit on the wrist by a pitch. Tragic, just tragic.”

“It wasn’t serious. He’ll be ready for Spring Training.”

“Unless something else happens to that fragile wrist of his. Not saying it’s going to, but hey, anything is possible in this big bad world of ours. Which brings me to Derek Holland. What a shame it was to have him (makes quotation marks with his fingers) trip over his dog. (Closes the quotes with his fingers) Microfracture surgery on his knee. Going to miss half a season. A dog gone shame it is. Hey, youse see what I just did there? Tripped over his dog? Dog-gone shame??? HAR HAR HAR!!!”

“OK, Mr…”

“Vinny. My name is Vinny.”

“All right, Vinny. Why don’t you tell me what you’re really here for?”

“It’s like dis, Bob. You don’t mind if I call you Bob, do you?”

“I mind very much!”

“Bob it is. You see, Bob…JD…I represent a growing concern we call the Globe Life Insurance Company. And I…WE…can guarantee the future safety of your players. In fact, I will personally see to it that some of these accidents stop happening. Just like that!”(Snaps his fingers)

“I don’t see how you can, considering they were accidents to begin with…”

“JD, JD, JD. I can’t believe your brilliant baseball mind doesn’t understand. Sure, Derek had an…accident, shall we say. Who’s to say that a week into spring training, Jurickson Profar just happens to slip on a bar of soap in the shower, throwing his whole shoulder out of whack. Or maybe your new guy….Choo is his name? Who’s to say this Choo fellow doesn’t take his girl to an amusement park and gets into an incident involving the little choo choo that goes around the park? Maybe dese tings happen, maybe dey don’t. Just saying…”

“I think I get where you’re coming from, Vinny. So how much?”

“Mr. Simpson, you’re not thinking about paying this guy off, are you?”

“Quiet JD. This is between Vinny and me. So what’s the bottom line Vinny?”

“Well, the people I represent at Globe Life think it would be really cool to have people partake of a game here in Arlington at Globe Life Park. Whatta youse guys feel about that?”

“I hate it.”

“Fortunately, it’s Bobby here who makes the decisions. So whatta ya say, Bobby? Have we got a deal?”

“And we have no more…accidents?”

“Scout’s honor. No more accidents for the next nine months.”

“Nine months isn’t good enough. I’m not going to do this and have you come back nine months again and do another shakedown!”

“Bobby, Bobby. This ain’t a shakedown. It’s a business arrangement! Tell you what, let’s shoot for da stars. We’ll make it a ten year arrangement. How does that sound?”

“And we won’t see you again for another ten years?”

“You gots my word on it.”

“And if we decide after this year we no longer want to be associated with you?”

“Oh you wouldn’t want to do that. Something bad could happen. I might could persuade A-Rod to return to Texas.”

“Ten years it is Vinny. Great doing business with you! Can’t wait to see the Globe Life Park signage for the next ten years. Hell, I’ll go 20 as long as you keep A-Rod away from here!”

“Gentlemen, it’s been a pleasure.”

(Takes out cell phone. Places a call.)

“Mr. Ryan? Nolan? Vinny here. We got a deal. Worked like a charm!”

Making A Good First Impression

Just days before Opening Day, the Rangers added players with only a short time to decide whether they will be on the roster this coming Monday when the Rangers take on the Phillies.

The first was infielder Donnie Murphy, picked up on waivers after not making the Cubs. With Jurickson Profar on the shelf for up to three months, Texas is in need of an infielder with a little pop in his bat to at least serve in a second base platoon. In Friday’s exhibition against the Quintana Roo Tigres of the Mexican League, Murphy made a great first impression on the fans at Globe Life Park in Arlington:

Also joining the team for the game was Seth Rosin, a Rule 5 guy picked up from the Los Angeles Dodgers. All Rosin did was nail down the save with two innings of work against the Tigres:

Murphy is sure to stick with Texas while Profar recovers from a torn shoulder muscle. He’s a veteran utility guy and isn’t phased about being part of a platoon at second. Rosin is a little more of a surprise. As a Rule 5 player, if he doesn’t start the season with the big club, then Texas has to offer him back to the Phillies for a mere $25,000. Rosin this off-season has gone from the Phillies to the Mets to the Dodgers to the Rangers. He had good spring stats with the Didgers but they have a full bullpen and let him go. The Rangers may have the extra bullpen need but, because of his Rule 5 status, they only have four days to decide whether to put him on the roster. That isn’t a lot of time to consider a guy who’s never pitched above Double-A in the regular season.

The Rangers, as everyone knows, have real injury issues. Murphy definitely addresses one of those and Rosin might. In the meantime, as much as Spring Training records don’t mean much of anything, it does make the injury woes feel better seeing the Rangers go on a four game winning streak in exhibition play right before the start of the regular season.

Two last exhibitions in San Antonio against the Astros then the games count. Let’s get it on!

Roster Projections 3/25/14

Jurickson Profar: Out 10-12 Weeks

Putting the roster pieces together.

Putting the roster pieces together.

Geovany Soto: Out 10-12 Weeks

The Rangers’ injury woes have mounted, but at least we can hold on to this: If anyone was going to miss 10-12 weeks, from an offensive perspective, Profar and Soto were probably two of the LEAST important cogs in the line-up. Not to say the line-up won’t miss them, but compared to Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Alex Rios and Shin-Soo Choo, it’s a hit that’s tolerable to the Rangers..

Still, these events open roster spaces and, with only six days to go before the Rangers have a date with the Philadelphia Phillies and Cliff Lee on March 31st, the thought of what the Rangers’ roster will look like (come Monday (it’ll be all right) (Thanks Jimmy Buffett) becomes an interesting exercise.

Here’s what we know with certainty on offense because they aren’t injured in any way, shape or form as I write this:

Prince Fielder

Adrian Beltre

JP Arencibia

Leonys Martin

Alex Rios

Michael Choice

Here’s what is highly probable, as in they have reported injuries but it isn’t expected to put them on the DL to start the season:

Elvis Andrus

Mitch Moreland

Shin-Soo Choo

That’s only nine players. The Rangers still need a back-up catcher, another outfielder, a starting second baseman and a utility infielder. I suspect Robinson Chirinos will be the second catcher. He’s been excellent in camp and deserves a roster spot. Since Moreland has gotten some reps in left field, I think the Rangers are leaning towards him as the fifth outfielder at this point, meaning Texas really needs a starting second baseman and TWO utility infielders. Kevin Kouzmanoff has had a good spring as well and likely will get one of those spots to provide a third base back-up for Beltre. Now the question is, will Texas go for a platoon at second base while Profar is out? The candidates thus far are Brent Lillibridge, Josh Wilson, Adam Rosales and Kesuke Tanaka. Of these, I think one stays, either Wilson or Rosales. As for the last offensive roster slot? I’m betting on someone who is among the last cuts in someone else’s training camp or gets obtained in a minor trade before Opening Day. That’s how the Rangers got Matt Treanor in 2010 and Andres Blanco in 2011.

Thus, the Opening Day offense is:

1B: Fielder

2B: Wilson or Rosales

SS: Andrus

3B: Beltre

C: Arencibia

LF: Choo

CF: Martin

RF: Rios

DH: Moreland

Bench: Chirinos, Kouzmanoff, Choice, Mystery Infielder

BaseballFor the pitching staff, Texas has a starting rotation in flux. Matt Harrison isn’t ready to help at season’s start. The back-end of the rotation is still unsettled. Let’s start by looking at health again. Here are the definite roster members who have no reported health issues:

Martin Perez

Tanner Scheppers

Robbie Ross

Alexi Ogando

Joakim Soria

Neal Cotts

Jason Frasor

The only one with a potential health issue that’s a lock is Yu Darvish, who’s officially ruled out to pitch Opening Day. That’s seven pitchers, leaving another five slots open. The following are in the mix for roster spots: Colby Lewis, Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, Neftali Feliz, Michael Kirkman, Pedro Figueroa, Rafael Perez and Shawn Tolleson. For this exercise, I’m going to assume Robbie Ross will be in the rotation, leaving one open starter position and four bullpen slots.

I want Colby Lewis in the Rangers rotation. I just don’t know if he’s ready yet, having gone through hip replacement surgery. Lewis is the talk of the camp and I think he’ll help Texas in 2014, but I think it best if he starts the season at AAA Round Rock. By default, that would hand the fifth starter spot to Hanson or Saunders. Neither one excites me. I’ll go with Saunders only because the DFW media seem to feel Hanson would work better than Saunders in the long reliever/spot starter role.

In the bullpen, it has already been established Soria is the closer and Ogando will set him up in the 8th. Frasor and Cotts are there for the seventh inning. Assuming Hanson is the long man, that leaves two slots open. Neftali Feliz has disappointed Rangers brass with his lack of velocity as he comes back from Tommy John surgery. I think he starts the season in AAA. Michael Kirkman is out of options but I don’t think the Rangers see any future for him with the club, either. He might be a trade piece for the extra infielder the Rangers need. I think Tolleson and Figueroa will be the last two pieces added to the pen. Thus we have a pitching staff that looks like this:

Starters

Darvish

Perez

Scheppers

Ross

Saunders

Bullpen

Hanson

Soria

Ogando

Frasor

Cotts

Tolleson

Figueroa

More moves still could be on the horizon between now and Monday that throw these predictions all out of whack. For the short-term, I hope this roster will be okay because for a pennant run, there’s still a lot of help needed.

QUICK NOTE: Every year, the C70 At The Bat blog, part of Cardsconclave.com, does a “Playing Pepper” feature looking at the other MLB teams. Today is Texas Rangers Day and some of my comments, along with a half dozen other Rangers bloggers are there. Make sure you give it a read!

Who Are These Guys? -or- Can You Identify That Strange Odor?

Adam Rosales and Josh Wilson your Opening Day middle infield? Doesn’t exactly strike fear into the heart of the AL West, does it?

Jurickson

Jurickson Profar

That’s a possibility for the Rangers come Opening Day against the Phillies on March 31st. We know for a fact Jurickson Profar won’t man second base for the first game, or the second, probably not for the first 81 games. Profar got diagnosed with a torn muscle in his shoulder and will miss 10-12 weeks.

Meanwhile his middle infield partner, Elvis Andrus, is still experiencing soreness on  his throwing arm. He is currently DH-ing and isn’t supposed to throw until this weekend’s final exhibition games in San Antonio, cutting the margin extremely close for the opener.

The Opening Day starter, Yu Darvish, got scratched from his last start because of a sore neck. He insisted it wasn’t an issue but the word out of Rangers camp Sunday made it sound like it hasn’t cleared up as much as he’d like.

Who will start Opening Day? For sure not Profar. Maybe not Andrus. Maybe not Mitch Moreland, still getting over and oblique strain. Maybe not Darvish. Maybe not Shin-Soo Choo, who still has left elbow soreness. Maybe not Geovany Soto, who got pulled in the first inning of Sunday’s exhibition when his leg locked up.

Question-Mark-34Let’s make matters even worse, shall we? The Rangers announced Friday Tanner Scheppers had earned a spot in the rotation and Joakim Soria will be the closer, making it a four-way battle for the last two rotation spots between Tommy Hanson, Joe Saunders, Colby Lewis and Robbie Ross. So what happens? Hanson starts on Saturday and gives up 7 runs in 5.2 innings. Advantage Saunders, right? Wrong! Saunders started Sunday and couldn’t even make it through two innings, giving up 9 runs in an inning and a third. Ross has pitched well enough to earn a rotation slot. I’ve always loved Colby Lewis but this is a guy coming off a hip replacement whose last two starts have come in minor league games. That makes the starting rotation Proven Commodity with a sore neck (Darvish), Second Year Starter who may or may not have a sophomore slump (Martin Perez), Former Reliever (Scheppers), Former Reliever (Ross) and Hip Replacement Guy (Lewis). One of them will get replaced in a few weeks by Missed All But Two Starts Last Year Guy (Matt Harrison). So there’s no concern about the starting rotation, right?

You sense a trend here? Opening Day for the first time in five seasons is filling me with dread. The optimism just isn’t there now. The Rangers have a lot of depth in the minor league system but there’s not much there now at the big league level. That’s why we have a possible starting middle infield of Adam Rosales and Josh Wilson.

Rougned Odor

Rougned Odor

A national beat writer wrote last night the Rangers wouldn’t miss a beat at second base if they start rookie Rougned Odor while Profar is on the mend. Odor is one of the Rangers top prospects, a player Rangers minor league analyst Scott Lucas says just has “that look” about him. Maybe so but he also has only 134 at bats at the Double A level. Is he ready for that big a leap? And if he succeeds, what then? Now there’s another logjam in the middle infield with three quality players for two positions.

I’m not totally against the idea of Odor playing at the big league level. He may already offer more than Rosales or Brent Lillibridge over the next three months. Or he could flame out spectacularly, which is why someone like Rosales or Lillibridge could be the stopgap measure. We know they won’t add much, but as veterans, their output is more of a known commodity. Also to be considered is if Odor hits the big stage, that accelerates his free agency timetable by at least a year. Is the front office willing to risk that year right now?

Only a week to go before Opening Day and there are still a lot of decisions to be made.

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